As far as hockey news is concerned, we're firmly into
the dog days of summer. I'm relatively
certain things just shut down whenever Bob McKenzie decides to go to his
cottage, leaving us plenty of time to speculate on what the Habs roster will
look like next season. One of the more
interesting questions, of course, revolves around what to do with Scott
Gomez. While many won't be happy until
he's centring the first line for the 2013 Calder Cup Champion Hamilton
Bulldogs, I actually believe that sending Gomez down to Hamilton would be a mistake. It's important to look at this issue from two
angles. First, one must examine what
Scott Gomez brings to the Canadiens in terms of on-ice contributions. Second, if you do decide to bury his contract
in Hamilton, you have to look at what can be done with the cap space you've
freed up. Gomez's positive on-ice
contributions, combined with the dearth of quality free agent options
available, make sending him to Hamilton a risky proposition. I advocate that the correct route is the one that Bergevin appears to be taking: patience.
Scott Gomez – Useful
Hockey Player
It's easy to mock his two goals from last season, but Scott
Gomez is an extremely useful hockey player.
Some very smart people have looked at the numbers (see pieces by Chris Boyle
and Cam Charron)
in order to assess Gomez's value to the Montreal Canadiens. Both of those pieces are highly recommended
reading, but as a quick summary they both conclude that Gomez is extremely
valuable when it comes to driving puck possession. Teams with positive puck possession numbers tend
to be more successful, making the Canadiens a better team with Gomez in the
lineup than they are without him.
The easy retort to all this, of course, is that Gomez scored
two goals last season. Scott Gomez, however, clearly isn't a goal
scorer. His contributions lie in other
areas of the game. Justin Bourne points
to Gomez as having one of the worst shots in the NHL,
but still praises both his playmaking ability and elusiveness. Cam Charron points out Gomez's high first
assist rate, and even a simple "watch-the-game" smell test
re-enforces the idea that Gomez has tremendous vision. Having a poor shot is no excuse for scoring 2
goals in a season, but one would also anticipate that Gomez won't have a
shooting percentage of 3.4 next season.
His goal scoring numbers will likely never be pretty (as Bourne points
out, he's only topped 20 once in his career), but it might be smarter for
everyone to simply recalibrate their expectations instead of expecting higher
goal production. As noted in the pieces
linked to above, Gomez's contributions lie in other key areas. While they may not be as evident as a flashy
goal total, they're still very important.
The one issue I have with Cam Charron's piece is that I
wouldn't call Scott Gomez under-rated. I
believe that a better label for Gomez is "under-appreciated". Even if you're not a believer in advanced
stats, you'd have to admit that Scott Gomez has an ability to carry the puck
into the opposition end that's unmatched on the Montreal Canadiens. I think that, at a certain level, most Habs
fans are smart enough to recognize this and appreciate that Gomez is a talented
player. I'd go even further and say that
most Habs fans probably aren't too surprised by the findings in the pieces by
Boyle and Charron. It's impossible to
appreciate Gomez's contributions, however, because it's too easy to see a cap
hit north of $7MM and ignore everything else.
Gomez's abilities, however evident they may be, are impossible to
appreciate in the context of how much production one should get from what
roughly amounts to 10% of your cap space.
While this is perfectly understandable, it shouldn't be allowed to take
away from the fact that these contributions are both real and, while not worth $7MM,
valuable.
What to do with the
cap space?
As noted above, figuring out what to do with Scott Gomez is
really a two-part question. It's
important to note that, as it stands, the Habs have $6.3MM in cap space with
only Subban left to re-sign. It's
entirely possible for the Habs to keep Gomez in the fold without having to
sacrifice anything from the current lineup.
If you still determine he's not worth wasting a roster spot on at his
current cap hit, you need to have a plan for what's to be done
with the additional cap space. Like it or not,
the Montreal Canadiens are an appreciably better team with Scott Gomez in the
lineup. You can't just pluck Gomez out
of the lineup and hope for the best; there needs to be a clear plan in place.
Looking at the free agency pile, there aren't many options
out there. The Canadiens' most obvious
need at the moment is a top 6 winger, specifically one who can slot in with
Brian Gionta and Tomas Plekanec on the left wing. It appears that Bergevin isn't interested in
Alex Semin, who is unfortunately a right winger anyway, but beyond him there
aren't many options I'd be interested in touching. I'm sure a lot of people are intrigued by the
possibility of Shane Doan, but the term and money that he's rumoured to be
looking for (on a 35+ deal!) are insane.
The idea of a 38 year old Doan one day hobbling around the Bell Centre
ice making 6 million a year isn't necessarily attractive. Before anyone throws out the argument that
he's a "character" guy or a "leader", it should also be
noted that Doan is a bit of a cheap shot artist. A simple YouTube search can easily confirm
this, and he's not exactly the type of player I'm excited to be rooting
for. If the point of clearing up Gomez's
cap hit is just to double down on another bad contract, then as a fan base we'd
be right back where we started.
The other option would be, presumably, to free up the cap
space to bring in a guy via trade. Top 6 wingers aren't often available via trade, but one name that seems to be popping up a lot in rumours is Bobby Ryan. The
issue here, though, is simple: what trade assets do the Habs really have? There's this idea, which I blame on the
ridiculous trades you can pull off in NHL 12 (or in real life if you're Brian
Burke), that you can get elite players for what essentially amounts to a hill
of beans. This obviously isn't the case. If you want quality, you're going to have to
be willing to give up quality. You're
not getting Bobby Ryan for Yannick Weber and spare parts just because you're
willing to throw in your 2nd round pick.
The Habs have plenty of interesting prospects in the system, but
projecting prospect success is always going to be risky. You're likely going to need to send back an
NHL ready guy, and Rene Bourque isn't going to cut it. This is really just a matter of personal
opinion, but I'm also not willing to give up a guy like Lars Eller without
first seeing what he can do playing on a line with actual hockey players. The fact that many teams will be willing and
able to outbid the Habs, combined with the fact that it's not entirely clear
how successful Bobby Ryan can be when separated from Getzlaf and Perry, make
the trade route somewhat unrealistic in terms of landing a bigger money, top 6
guy.
Patience
The only real option with Scott Gomez is patience. I can't imagine that anything will be done
before the CBA is finalized, as pretty much any plan depends on the contents of
the new agreement. Even if you want to
simply get rid of Gomez, burying bad contracts in the AHL could easily be
phased out. While the possibility of an
amnesty clause has been bandied about by some, it's far from a guarantee. Until you really know what your options are,
it would be impossible to proceed in any way with Gomez.
The option everyone seems to discount offhand is a
trade. While I'm definitely in the
minority on this issue, I don't think a trade is completely out of the
question. This is obviously a CBA
dependant question, but the salary cap floor as it currently stands is
relatively high. Scott Gomez will have a
cap hit of $7,357,143 for the next two season, but his actual salary will be
$5,5MM in 2012-13 and $4,5MM in 2013-14.
Considering how useful of a player he can be, a team looking to boost
their cap number for the next two seasons at a discount could certainly do
worse, especially considering he'd be available essentially for free.
Let's be clear: Scott Gomez is obviously not worth his cap
hit, and this piece should in no way be construed as advocating otherwise. Not being worth a $7MM cap hit, however,
should not be confused with not being a decent hockey player. Scott Gomez contributes positively to the
Montreal Canadiens when he's in the lineup.
The Habs cannot afford to simply remove what he brings to the table
without having a solid plan in place to replace him. Doubling down on another bad contract would
bring us right back to square one, and considering the free agent options
available that seems to be the only other possibility. Habs fans may not like it, but if nothing
else can be done with the cap space, having Gomez start the year in a Habs
sweater is likely the best option.
Cap numbers via
Capgeek – http://www.capgeek.com
